From Orange Juice to Canned Tomatoes: 6,900 Canadian Grocery Stores Quietly Raise Prices as Trade War Costs Hit the Shelves

A quiet “storm at the dinner table” is sweeping across Canada, reshaping the way people shop. From orange juice to canned tomatoes, price tags are shifting—and behind these changes lies more than just inflation. It’s the ripple effect of an international trade war, with hidden tariff costs creeping down the supply chain and landing in Canadians’ grocery carts.

According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers (CFIG), nearly all of the country’s approximately 6,900 independent grocery stores have begun raising prices to varying degrees—especially on fresh foods. Gary Sands, Senior Vice President at CFIG, said these small businesses already operate on razor-thin margins—about 2%—leaving little room to absorb rising costs.

“This isn’t a choice for retailers, it’s a matter of survival,” Sands said. “When food manufacturers raise prices by 4%, 5%, 6%, or even double digits, we simply have no choice but to pass those costs on to consumers.”

The Hidden Tariff in a Glass of Orange Juice

Orange juice, a staple in many Canadian homes, offers a striking example of how tariffs are playing out in real time. On Loblaws’ website, price differences between local and imported products are stark:

• Canadian-made President’s Choice pulp-free orange juice: $5.00 (32¢ per 100ml)
• U.S.-made Tropicana (marked “tariff-affected”): $8.72 (66¢ per 100ml)
• Canadian Simply Orange: $7.69 (50¢ per 100ml)

At Metro, the trend is similar:

• Canadian Irresistibles orange juice (2.5L): $6.99 (28¢ per 100ml)
• U.S. Tropicana (2.5L): $13.99 (53¢ per 100ml)

This isn’t just about brand preference—it’s a direct consequence of tariffs levied on U.S. imports. Stuart Smyth, professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Saskatchewan, explains that policy volatility since February has caused pricing uncertainty, prompting producers to factor in worst-case tariff scenarios ahead of time.

Canadian-Made Doesn’t Mean Cost-Free

Surprisingly, domestic food manufacturers aren’t spared either. Michael Graydon, CEO of the Food, Health & Consumer Products of Canada (FHCP), revealed that many Canadian producers still rely on U.S. ingredients. One Ontario cannery, for instance, sources tomatoes from California—now subject to retaliatory tariffs since March.

“Coffee, chocolate, nuts—all key ingredients in Canadian food production—are also on the tariff list,” Graydon said. “Most producers are still trying to absorb these costs themselves, hoping things stabilize soon. But no one knows how long they can hold out.”

Price increases are not always immediate. When suppliers want to raise prices, they must file formal requests with retailers, justifying the need. The process can take 6 to 12 weeks, meaning the full impact of cost increases hasn’t yet appeared on store shelves.

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Canada’s Cheapest Grocery Chains Revealed

Faced with rising prices, consumers are adapting. A recent Narcity poll on Facebook asked Canadians to name their go-to budget grocery chains. Surprisingly, bulk-buying giant Costco didn’t make the top three. Instead, Canadians chose:

1. No Frills
2. Food Basics
3. Giant Tiger

Giant Tiger, in particular, is being hailed as a rising star. “It keeps getting better,” one user commented. Others said Costco is great for large families, but not always ideal for singles or small households—where bulk buying can backfire financially.

Other honorable mentions include FreshCo, Walmart, and Dollarama. “Aside from meat, dairy, and produce, you can buy almost everything at Dollarama,” said one Ontario shopper.

Additional budget-friendly stores, though less frequently mentioned, include Real Canadian Superstore, T&T Supermarket, Farm Boy, and Save On Foods. Loblaws also drew praise for offering aggressive discounts from time to time.

The consensus? No one store is cheapest across the board. Smart shopping means hopping between chains and keeping an eye on promotions.

A New Era of “Shelf Sovereignty”

Beyond price tags, there’s a deeper consumer shift underway. Sands says more and more Canadians are actively seeking out “Made in Canada” products. Retailers who previously stocked heavy inventories of U.S. goods are now struggling—unable to sell at profitable prices.

“Consumers are speaking with their feet,” Sands noted. “I’ve been in this industry for 25 years, and I’ve never seen this level of demand for Canadian-made goods.”

There is one bright spot: with warmer weather arriving, locally grown Canadian fruits and vegetables are entering peak season. These products avoid both tariffs and long supply chains, offering relief to shoppers looking for fresh, affordable options.

“No one likes higher prices, but we have to shop smarter,” said one Toronto resident. In a trade war with no clear end in sight, the grocery aisle has become the front line—and Canadians are learning to navigate it with both caution and creativity.